What “Underrated” Actually Looks Like
Damian Lillard has a right to be frustrated
The last time Damian Lillard was an All-Star, he wasn’t really an All-Star. After falling short to Stephen Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Klay Thompson, and of course, Kobe Bryant in 2014–15, he was named an injury replacement for Blake Griffin. Apparently, having six guards was acceptable.
Lillard has not sniffed the All-Star Game since. In 2015–16, he lost out to four of the same five guards as the year before (Bryant’s retirement had opened up a spot for Chris Paul) and again to Curry, Harden, Westbrook, and Thompson in 2016–17 (only four guards made that year’s team).
There is a chance that it happens again this year. Curry and Harden were named the backcourt starters on Jan. 18. Westbrook, Thompson, and Paul are all getting more votes than Lillard and, while Paul will likely fall short due to time missed (he’s appeared in only 25 games), Jimmy Butler is an extremely strong candidate to soar in the coach/player/media portion of the voting.
The Portland point guard is aware of that possibility and is not happy about it. Per Chris Haynes of ESPN:
“I’ve gotten frustrated just for the fact that it feels like I always got to be the fall guy and every other guy has been deserving…In the past, the thing has been, ‘All right, my team has been 10 games under .500 or not in the playoffs,’ but every year we’ve found a way to be in the postseason, and this year I think we’re in much better position than we have been in the past two seasons that I didn’t make it. I think I’ve gotten over the emotional part of it the last few times that I didn’t make it. Now I’m kind of like expecting it to go that way, but I feel like I should be there.”
Lillard has the right to be frustrated. While his teams have sat far below .500 when each of the last two rosters were announced (a motivated Lillard got them going in the second half each season), that is not the case this year. The Trail Blazers are 23–21, and Lillard is having another monster campaign with 25.0 points, 6.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds on 57.4 percent true shooting.
Mike Conley has long been referred to as the league’s most “underrated” point guard. He, too, has consistently missed out on All-Star teams, but Conley does not have the fame and cultural profile of Lillard. He fits nicely into the underrated box as “the best player casual fans have not heard of.”
Conley, though, is not underrated. He has never been an All-Star because he is not an All-Star. Rather, he has been the second or third-best player on several deep, veteran Memphis teams that have thrived due to elite defense covering for middling offense. While he has been a part of those defenses and is the number one thing keeping those offenses above water; he’s gotten close to fair credit for his efforts. Whatever he lacks in mass commercial appeal, he makes up for in scores of praise from players, broadcasters, writers, and hardcore fans.
Lillard is underrated. He exists in a tier of point guards decidedly above Conley: alongside Kyrie Irving, John Wall, and Kyle Lowry. But while his peers have 11 All-Star selections among them since Lillard entered the league, Lillard himself has two and, really, only one if you ignore the Griffin injury replacement.
Of course, Irving, Wall, and Lowry play in the East. Swap any of those guys with Lillard, and the All-Star appearances will swap with them. It isn’t as if Lillard has been criminally snubbed; his conference competition is a legitimate roadblock that he has not overcome. But his being underrated goes beyond that.
Lillard is the closest thing the league has to Curry: an elite point guard who can dominate in isolation, out of the pick-and-roll, and light it up from well beyond the 3-point line. He does not shoot like Steph but he shoots like him, to the point where defenses still have to overextend and leave gaps elsewhere. Curry has always been a better finisher but, until this year, Lillard has been the better overall inside scorer due to his foul-drawing ability.
Since he was last legitimately named an All-Star four years ago, Lillard has combined a usage rate in the 90th-percentile or higher with an 84th-percentile or higher finish in points per shot attempt. Irving does not touch those numbers, nor is he the passer or floor stretcher that Lillard is. Wall and Lowry are better facilitators and defenders, but there is a chasm between either their usage (Lowry) or their efficiency (Wall) and that of Lillard.
There should be no question who the top player on the Blazers is. But just as was said about LaMarcus Aldridge, there are many who believe that C.J. McCollum is Portland’s most crucial piece.
It is an absurd notion that stems from a lack of nuanced understanding. Both Blazers guards are similar in size, known for their shooting, and are capable playmakers. Given that, they are seen as similar players while McCollum shoots a much higher percentage from deep (41.6 for his career, compared to Lillard at 36.8).
What gets lost here is a consideration of the massive difference between the point guard and shooting guard positions. McCollum is a quality secondary ball handler, but he is nowhere close to a competent primary handler. Positing that he is a better offensive player than Lillard is not quite like saying Klay Thompson is better than Curry, but it is not all that far off.
When Lillard and McCollum share the court, Portland scores 107.7 points per 100 possessions. When McCollum plays without Lillard, that number plummets to 101.9. Switch it the other way, and the drop-off is far less significant (105.2). Lillard makes the Blazers go, and he always has.
Aldridge had a better case when he was in Portland than McCollum does now, but even after the power forward—and Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and Robin Lopez—departed in the summer of 2015, the Blazers dropped by just seven wins (from 51 to 44), and jumped from №8 to №7 offensively the following year.
If Lillard is not an All-Star this year, it will be a snub. It’s one thing to fall short of Curry, Harden, Westbrook, and Thompson year after year, but it is quite another to be talked about in competition with Lou Williams. The Clippers combo guard is having a spectacular season (23.0 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds on 60.8 percent true shooting, though largely against second units), but he should fall well short of Lillard. There is a feeling that he might not.
Butler has a strong case over Lillard (his team is better, he’s almost as good offensively and on a different defensive planet) but Westbrook’s is iffy. He rebounds and assists more, but many of those numbers are empty—he turns the ball over a ton, scores far less efficiently, and has greater talent around him.
Even if one believes Westbrook is more deserving than Lillard, there is still a clear path—six guards making the team. Doing so would simply require knocking off one of Karl-Anthony Towns, Paul George, or Draymond Green, none of whom have the resume or role in their team’s relative success that Lillard does.
Whether or not Lillard makes this year’s team matters, because All-Star appearances matter when it comes to a player’s legacy. Even if conference disparity is understood as a reason, it is quickly forgotten. There is no Eastern Conference asterisk on the resumes of Irving, Wall, and Lowry. All three have spent time in “top 10 players in the league” conversations at some point over the last few years. Lillard has consistently been relegated to the nebulous realm just outside of that.
It is weird to look at Damian Lillard’s Basketball Reference page, marvel at his 25-plus points per game over the last three years, his six-plus assists, his high-volume 3-point and free-throw shooting, his annual playoff appearances, and to see only two faded stars in the left-hand column.
Let’s hope that Lillard himself does not become one.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com and Cleaningtheglass.com
